In the next few posts we will look at an interesting system for betting on basketball. We are talking about bets mostly on Under/Over and Asian markets for matches from NBA. We will try to explain in details what kind of statistics we need and how to calculate them so to find the matches on which to bet.
To develop the system we use only the results of the last six matches of the two teams as hosts and guests. We need to compare their performances with the average performance of the teams that they play against and so to get with a high probability the points they will score in the match.
Here are the details with an example.
Let’s for our example take the match between Toronto and Milwaukee on January 14. Firstly, we have to calculate the probable points scored by the hosts of Toronto. For doing that we will calculate their past six matches at home.
We carefully record on an excel sheet every match of theirs and then calculate for every Toronto’s opponent the average points they have conceded in their last six matches as a guest. We compare this rate with the points scored by Toronto in their match and as a result we get the number of points Toronto have scored, more or less the average points that their opponent allow in a match.
After we finish that we have six coefficients showing the presentation of Toronto compared to the average performance of their opponents in the last six matches. We remove the best and worst Toronto’s performances and we take the average of the other four results.
In this case, it shows us that Toronto was able to score an average of four points over the average allowed by their opponents of their last six matches.
The last thing we should do is look at the average number of points allowed by Milwaukee (today’s guest of Toronto) to which we need to add an extra factor of four points that Toronto was able to build. So we get the first half of the points that Toronto will probably be able to score in the game against Milwaukee.
In the following post we will discuss what we should next.