Betting concepts

The leaders in the current standings of the English Premier League Arsenal will meet Fulham in their match of the 22nd round of the championship. The hosts from Arsenal will go into this match with an increased confidence after a series of four consecutive wins and seven in their last ten league games. In turn, Fulham has just three wins and seven losses, which makes their stay in the Premier League more uncertain than ever.

Just a single point divides Fulham from the relegation zone and a visit to the leaders in the current standings is hardly the most suitable match at this time.

The bookies also comply with the difference in the classes between the two teams and put Arsenal as expected in the role of a strong favorite to win this match.

Video from the last round Arsenal’s match versus Aston Villa

Bet365’s proposals for this match is 1.22 for an Arsenal’s win, a surprising win for Fulham will give odds of 12 and at 6 is estimated the draw. William Hill gives 1.25 for Arsenal, 11 for Fulham and 6 for the draw. At bet-at-home the odds are similar like on the other two bookies. A home win for Arsenal is estimated at 1.2, the draw in the match is offered on 6.5 and an eventual victory for Fulham is estimated at 12.

However, I think that far more interesting are the suggestions of the bookies for Asian Handicap. There, the even odds we can get with a proposal for Arsenal to win with -2.

Video from the last round Fulham’s match versus Sunderland

Given the difficulties that Arsenal showed when they have to play against a very defensive team like in the match against Cardiff, a bet for Fulham with +2 seems more than justified. The match with Cardiff ended with an Arsenal’s victory with 2-0, a result, which will refund the stake, but both goals were scored late in the game, which can’t always happen.

The best odds for such bet come from bet365, where the coefficient is 1.83, which will be my bet for this match.

You are interested in football betting and you know how to guess correctly when a goal will be scored in a match? Well, if this is the case then William Hill is just right for you. Faithful to the tradition, which says that William Hill is the bookie that always offers the maximum number of bets, this bookmaker once again offers a full range of betting options for the time of scoring a goal in a football match.

When you look at their betting sheet you will see a section named Goal Time. In this section, the whole match is divided into periods of 15 minutes and the bettor can choose will or will not a goal be scored in any one of them. The odds for these bets are pretty good as the odds for Yes proposed by William Hill are around 3 and for No around 1.4. The odds are changed in the last fifteen minutes of the match where for a Yes the odds usually drop down to just over 2 and these for No go a bit higher to just below 2.

Keep in mind the fact that in this type of betting William Hill are extremely generous and offer the lowest possible margin available on the Internet. It varies between 5 and 7 percent depending on the time period, which is truly great and offers options for gaining profit even with lower success rate.

William Hill offers similar bets, but with shorter periods in the last minutes of the match. You can bet if there will be a goal or not on the last 10 and 5 minutes of every match. There is even a bet for a scored goal in the injury time, as the coefficient for a Yes in this betting option is often above 5.

Another additional betting option is the combined bet for the time of the first scored goal and which team will score first. Here time periods are limited to only two by the bookmaker.

Bet on the exact time of a goal is scored in a match is an interesting bet, which involves lots of emotions and strategic thinking. However, if you decide to try it, for sure William Hill should be your bookmaker, at least because of the low margin they offer.

A few days ago we talked about a betting system for predicting the number of points scored by each team in the NBA. The starting point for the prediction was the ratio of points scored in each of the last six matches of a team to the average number of points that the team’s opponents allowed. It forms an additional factor that we add to the average number of points that today’s opponent of the respective team allowed. For example, we had a look on the match between Toronto and Milwaukee.

For more information on how we calculate the probable points scored by the teams see the previous article.

We continue from where we stopped in the last article.

Once you have identified the most likely number of points scored by Toronto in their match against Milwaukee at home it is time to determine the most probable number of points allowed by the guests from Milwaukee. This is the same process by determining the ratio of the average number of points scored by the opponents of Milwaukee and the actual number of points that opponents of Milwaukee scored against the team. When we are ready, we remove again the best and the worst result and compare the ratio with the average number of points that the home team in this match Toronto score in their last six matches. By doing that we get the most likely number of points, which the visitors from Milwaukee will allow in the match.

Of the two numbers (the most probable number scored by Toronto and allowed by Milwaukee) we determine the average, which in practice is the final result of the total points which is most likely to be scored by Toronto as host against Milwaukee.

We repeat exactly the same procedure for the guests in this match to get the most probable number of points that they will score and so we have our prediction about the outcome of the match.

In this case, it was 104:88 in favor of the hosts or in other words a victory with 16 points for Toronto. bet365, William Hill and bet-at-home offer for Toronto’s victory was with -10.5 points on Asian Handicap, which means that we can safely bet in their favor. The bookies’ proposals for Under/Over market was for 188 points, which means we could bet on an Over here.

The actual result of the match is 116:94, which made both bets winners.

In the next few posts we will look at an interesting system for betting on basketball. We are talking about bets mostly on Under/Over and Asian markets for matches from NBA. We will try to explain in details what kind of statistics we need and how to calculate them so to find the matches on which to bet.

To develop the system we use only the results of the last six matches of the two teams as hosts and guests. We need to compare their performances with the average performance of the teams that they play against and so to get with a high probability the points they will score in the match.

Here are the details with an example.

Let’s for our example take the match between Toronto and Milwaukee on January 14. Firstly, we have to calculate the probable points scored by the hosts of Toronto. For doing that we will calculate their past six matches at home.

We carefully record on an excel sheet every match of theirs and then calculate for every Toronto’s opponent the average points they have conceded in their last six matches as a guest. We compare this rate with the points scored by Toronto in their match and as a result we get the number of points Toronto have scored, more or less the average points that their opponent allow in a match.

After we finish that we have six coefficients showing the presentation of Toronto compared to the average performance of their opponents in the last six matches. We remove the best and worst Toronto’s performances and we take the average of the other four results.

In this case, it shows us that Toronto was able to score an average of four points over the average allowed by their opponents of their last six matches.

The last thing we should do is look at the average number of points allowed by Milwaukee (today’s guest of Toronto) to which we need to add an extra factor of four points that Toronto was able to build. So we get the first half of the points that Toronto will probably be able to score in the game against Milwaukee.

In the following post we will discuss what we should next.

When you want to bet some euro on basketball you certainly should do it with bet365. Whether it’s a match from NBA, U.S. college basketball or some European Basketball Championship this bookmaker offers truly excellent betting options

For each match of major basketball championship bet365 offers 15 different types of bets, each of which gives excellent profit opportunities. In the next few lines we will have a look on all the proposals and will discuss which of them are good and which are not.

The standard basketball betting options offered by bet365 include picking the winner of the match, the same bet, but with added handicap to one of the teams and under/over bet on the total number of points scored by both teams in the match.

These are the most popular betting options and the reason for that is that they give more opportunities for profit. If you check the odds for these bets you will see that the margin, which the bookmaker offers rarely exceeds 5%. This effectively means that the boundary of the success rate, which would guarantee you profit, is much lower than in other kinds of bets.

For example, in another very popular bet offered by bet365 – which part of the match will be with most scored points, we can see much higher coefficients for each of the four possible outcomes, but the margin is actually bigger. It is often above 15% or in other words, the punter will need a higher successful rate to get some profit in the long run.

Except the options we already mentioned when it comes to a basketball match, bet365 also offers an opportunity for betting on the exact difference with which the victory will be taken in the match. This betting option also guarantees higher odds, sometimes even above 40, but it is also extremely difficult to achieve successful results.

Bet365 offers also more basketball betting options related to which team will score most points in a single part of the match as well as more exotic bets such as whether the total number of scored by both teams points will be odd or even.

So, a word of advice, when it comes to basketball betting do it on the three most popular options – the winner, Asian handicap and under/over of the total scored point.

In the next few lines I will present you a very simple, but profitable betting strategy. What is the most characteristic about this strategy is that it doesn’t require any betting or football knowledge and relies solely on strict money management and discipline.

As I said, the strategy is very simple. The bettor needs to take a football championship (I chose the English Premier League because I like the football there) and look the weekly edition of its favorite bookmaker. Then the three matches with the lowest odds for a draw need to be found and bet on. The idea of finding the lowest odds comes from the fact that according to the bookmakers those three matches are most likely to end with a draw.

That’s it. This is the entire system.

The idea the matches to be just three comes from the fact that the odds for a draw (especially on the bigger bookmakers like bet365, bet-at-home and William Hill) are almost always above 3. Thus, if only one match ends with a draw (which is actually the most likely outcome of each round) the bettor will still have a small profit.

Sounds really simple and most people who deal with betting on sporting events would say that this is nonsense, but the statistics show otherwise. If you take this season of the Premier League, after playing the first 17 rounds of the championship and made 51 bets the winners are 17. The pure profit is 45% when playing each bet with 5% of the bank. Not bad at all, right?

Of course, this system like any other needs some polishing. One of its most obvious problems is what to do when more than three matches are with the same coefficient for a draw. The variations are many, but I have decided to use a very simple principle – I trust my luck. I know this is not the best possible way, which actually means this simple system can give even better results.

Barcelona will play against Elche in their first match for 2014 and the big news around this match is that it again will be played without Lionel Messi. It is expected for Messi to be ready to play for the next round. It is clear to everyone that Barcelona is weaker without the Argentinean (despite the fact they are still the best team in Spain) and that’s why a bet for an away win on Asian Handicap with three goals margin for the guests and odds of 1.65 seems a really possible winner.

We don’t need to think much to realize that nothing depends on Elche’s players and it is a question of will for the hosts to beat this margin without problems.

However, the visitors from Elche are a tough nut to crack. In the current campaign they achieved three draws and two wins away from home, which in any case is not a bad result. Moreover, throughout the season from all of their 8 losses (including this one from Real Madrid) six came with only one goal difference. The only heavy defeat they have came in the first match against Rayo Vallecano, when they lost with 3-0.

Barcelona and Elche have not played so far in the championships of Spain, though it would hardly bring any valuable information which we can consider in this betting prediction.

Video from Barcelona’s last match versus Getafe

It is interesting how Barcelona played in its first match for the year in their previous two seasons. In both cases, they met Espanyol. In the last match the victory was for Barcelona with 4-0. However, two years ago the match was a draw – 1-1.

Video from Elche’s last match versus Malaga

What are the odds for this game? Bet-at-home offers 1.09 for a Barcelona win, 9.70 for a draw as the final outcome and 20.00 for a win of the visitors. Bet365 is somehow more confident in the victory of the home team and their offer is only 1.08. The other two coefficients are respectively 11.00 and 26.00. The proposal of William Hill for an 1X2 is 1.08, 10.00 and 26.00.

Everton hosts Norwich in a match of the 21st round of the English Premier League. This is a match in which the hosts will try to take the three points, which will help them to return in the top four of the current standings. Norwich so far fails to break away from the relegation zone and is just three points ahead of the 18th in the standings Crystal Palace, so any point they manage to take from this match will be very important in their battle for survival in the Premier League.

Of course, the bookies put Everton in the role of a favorite in this match. Bet365 and William Hill offer 1.44 for a victory for the hosts, while the proposal of bet-at-home is even lower – 1.4.

However, it is important to note that Norwich is in a series of three games without a loss away from home. They made draws against Crystal Palace and Sunderland and won against West Bromwich, but, it should be noted that these are teams from the bottom half of the table, while Everton is another class. It is clear that for the Canaries will be much harder to achieve a positive result in this match.

Here is an interview with Leighton Baines after the last Everton’s match versus Stoke

On the other hand, if you look at the statistics between the two teams, you will see that Norwich has more than decent results against Everton in the recent years. Norwich is unbeaten in the last five matches and the balance is four draws and one win.

Another important thing to note is the regression that Everton’s players have shown in the recent weeks. In November and the early December they achieved very prestigious results against teams like Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool, but in their last matches they conceded a loss from Sunderland at home (although this match was seriously impacted by the early red card which Tim Howard received), a draw against Stoke and a very difficult victory against Southampton.

Video from the last Norwich match versus Crystal Palace

Could Norwich repeat once again their good results against Everton and take something from Goodison Park? The bookies offer pretty good odds for an away win with a handicap of 1.5 goals in favor of Norwich as bet365’s proposal is 1.75. This bet loses only on a victory for Everton with two or more goals. Something that hardly will happen given the statistics of the matches between the two teams in the recent years and the form shown by Everton and Norwich in their last matches of the Premier League.

Probably, it is really hard to find a real bettor who has never tried to bet on a match from NFL. The American football as a sport offers so many betting options that it is preferred by many players around the world. When you add to that the fact that this sport has tremendous popularity in the U.S. we could easily understand why the bookmakers offer so many betting options on the matches from different American football leagues.

Only at bet365’s slips, the bookie offers more than 160 betting options for each match and in this article we will have a closer look at them.

Just like in basketball and ice hockey in the bet365 American football slips you will find three types of bets which are most popular of all. These are the bets for the winner of the match, the winner of the match but with an added handicap for one of the teams and under/over betting option for the total number of points scored by both teams. For the latter there is another bet which includes the exact number of the points scored by both teams and offers much higher odds, but it is really difficult to pick a winner for it.

For all the three major betting options bet365 suggests alternative variations which offer much higher or much lower odds, depending on the rate. With this option the player does no longer depend on the suggestion of the bookmaker and can bet on whatever he or she wants.

For those who love betting on the European Handicap options, which includes a draw as a possible outcome of the match are provided many suggestions. They include both the winner of the match and the number of points scored by both teams.

Other types of bets that can be found in the bet365 American football slips are related with the results in both halves of the match. For each of which bet365 offer separate bets for the winner in the half, the winner with an added handicap and the number of scored points.

Bet365’s betting proposals for American football are really many and this is why for these which are more rarely used by the punters we will talk in our next post.

Two of the teams fighting for a survival in the Premier League will meet each other in a match on January 1. Crystal Palace welcomes Norwich to Selhurst Park in a crucial match, which will give a step forward to one of the teams and will seriously jeopardize the other in the battle for retaining Premier League spot.

The hosts of Crystal Palace have performed a little better lately. They managed to take four wins and a draw in their last 10 matches and won 13 out of 30 possible points for the period. For comparison Norwich took 11 points in their last 10 matches with recorded three wins and two draws. It should be noted that the losses for the visitors came from teams in the top half of the table such as Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Manchester United.

A little over a month ago the two teams played their first match together when Norwich managed to take a tough home win with 1-0 after a goal scored by Gary Hooper.

Video from the Norwich’s lost from Manchester United in the last round of EPL

In a match of such importance for both teams, the concentration and effectiveness in front of the goal will affect greatly the final result.

In both factors both teams are pretty equal. In their last four matches at home Crystal Palace managed to score only three goals and created 47 goal attempts. The results for Norwich in their last four away matches are very close – the Canaries have scored four goals and created 46 chances for goal.

Video from the Crystal Places’s lost from Manchester City in the last round of EPL

All this suggests that the draw in the match is likely. The proposals of the bookmakers for such an outcome are good, the best ratio is offered by bet365 – 3.3. The proposal of bet-at-home is 3.2 and William Hill offers to its customers odds of 3 for the possible draw in the match between Crystal Palace and Norwich.