A few days ago we talked about a betting system for predicting the number of points scored by each team in the NBA. The starting point for the prediction was the ratio of points scored in each of the last six matches of a team to the average number of points that the team’s opponents allowed. It forms an additional factor that we add to the average number of points that today’s opponent of the respective team allowed. For example, we had a look on the match between Toronto and Milwaukee.

For more information on how we calculate the probable points scored by the teams see the previous article.

We continue from where we stopped in the last article.

Once you have identified the most likely number of points scored by Toronto in their match against Milwaukee at home it is time to determine the most probable number of points allowed by the guests from Milwaukee. This is the same process by determining the ratio of the average number of points scored by the opponents of Milwaukee and the actual number of points that opponents of Milwaukee scored against the team. When we are ready, we remove again the best and the worst result and compare the ratio with the average number of points that the home team in this match Toronto score in their last six matches. By doing that we get the most likely number of points, which the visitors from Milwaukee will allow in the match.

Of the two numbers (the most probable number scored by Toronto and allowed by Milwaukee) we determine the average, which in practice is the final result of the total points which is most likely to be scored by Toronto as host against Milwaukee.

We repeat exactly the same procedure for the guests in this match to get the most probable number of points that they will score and so we have our prediction about the outcome of the match.

In this case, it was 104:88 in favor of the hosts or in other words a victory with 16 points for Toronto. bet365, William Hill and bet-at-home offer for Toronto’s victory was with -10.5 points on Asian Handicap, which means that we can safely bet in their favor. The bookies’ proposals for Under/Over market was for 188 points, which means we could bet on an Over here.

The actual result of the match is 116:94, which made both bets winners.

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